Trump vs. DeSantis vs. Him vs. Her… The Crowded Republican Primary

As early as January of 2024, Iowa Republicans will flock to the ballot boxes to vote for the Republican presidential nominee who will take on President Joe Biden in the general election. The field of candidates gunning for this role has ballooned recently, leaving a crowded and confusing Republican primary. Leading the field is former President Donald Trump, seeking to become the second person in history––the first being Grover Cleveland in the 19th century––to return to the presidency after being defeated. There are currently ten candidates running against him. FiveThirtyEight consolidated numerous polls to narrow the field to only seven candidates polling at least 2% of potential voters. Along with Trump, these candidates are Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, former governor of South Carolina Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, and Former Governor of New Jersey Chris Christie.¹ Although some candidates enter the race with far greater chances, each contender has a unique path to becoming the Republican presidential nominee.

Trump has been the centerpiece of the Republican party since 2016, and he has no intention of leaving this post. Currently, Trump has a commanding lead in the polls at about 51.8%, over 28 percentage points above Ron DeSantis, his closest competitor.² Trump’s divisive rhetoric, faulty moral character, and lawsuits have put him at odds with much of the country, but his base of supporters continues to give him their unwavering support. Among this base, which represents a sizable portion of the Republican party, Trump can do no wrong. However, many Republican strategists fear that Trump’s moral character and controversial past may make him unelectable in the general election. They fear voters have grown weary of his belligerent rhetoric and legal troubles. Yet, Trump remains an intrinsic part of the Republican party, and his chances of winning the Republican primary only grow with each new candidate who joins the race. Assuming that his base does not falter, the remaining voters will likely be split between the other candidates, leaving Trump’s base as the largest voting bloc. Since primaries can be won by plurality, meaning a candidate only needs the most votes as opposed to over 50% of the votes, this bloc could almost single-handedly elect Trump as the nominee. The final piece of Trump’s presidential campaign, which could make all else a moot point, is his legal troubles. The classified documents at Mar-A-Lago or multiple other lawsuits facing Trump could land him in prison, shattering his presidential dreams. However, if he escapes major legal punishment, Trump will go into the Republican primary with the best chance of becoming the nominee.

Second in the polls, far behind Trump, is Ron DeSantis at 23.5%.³ After being elected governor of Florida in 2018, DeSantis has quickly risen up the ranks of the Republican party. He positioned himself as a Trump-like figure without the personality and legal problems, establishing himself as the candidate for voters looking to move on from Trump’s character but not his policies. As governor, DeSantis became a champion of far-right politics and culture wars, condemning the “woke” left. He signed into law the Parental Rights in Education Bill, often referred to as the “Don’t Say Gay Bill,” prohibiting schools from teaching young students about sexual orientation or gender identity. Many condemned the law as discriminatory to the LGBTQ+ community. When Disney voiced its disapproval of the law, DeSantis stripped away Disney World’s long-standing right to self-govern, which gave them governing powers similar to those of a county government.⁴ Although these acts received some support from Republicans, his extreme social conservatism has made others question his electability in a general election. As a result, despite DeSantis’s initial speed in becoming Trump’s main adversary, he failed to consolidate voters to his campaign, leaving the door open for others to join the race. DeSantis now faces the difficult task of bringing voters to his cause by presenting himself as a more professional Trump while also not attacking Trump in a way that would isolate Trump loyalists beyond the primary.

After the leading two contenders, the remaining candidates see much less support for their campaigns. Mike Pence is leading this second tier, polling at 6.7%. Trump’s vice president for four years, Pence broke from the former president in his campaign announcement, saying Trump made Pence choose between Trump and the Constitution on January 6. He chose the Constitution. As the foundation for his campaign, Pence turned back to the fundamental principles of Republicanism and Reaganism: The Three Leg Stool of fiscal conservatism, hawkish national security, and social conservatism.⁵ First, Pence wants to work towards a balanced budget, which did not happen under Trump. Next, he wants to be a hawk on national security, which currently means robustly supporting Ukraine. Lastly, Pence highlights social conservatism, especially appealing to the evangelical Christian right. For example, he has been highly vocal in supporting a national abortion ban. Although most evangelicals are Trump supporters, Pence hopes that Trump’s moral flaws will push these voters to choose his character and similarly evangelical policies over the former president. Unfortunately for Pence, he lives in an awkward in-between; he is closely associated with Trump as his former vice president, but he is also trying to distinguish himself. Voters who approve of Trump will likely vote for the former president, but voters who do not may see Pence as too closely tied to Trump. In response, Pence is focusing most of his efforts on Iowa, targeting its large evangelical population. He hopes for a shock victory in Iowa, the state that holds the first primary election, that could propel him into the conversation for the nomination. However, Pence still has a lot of work to do. Even in Iowa, few voters consider Pence as their top choice.⁶

The leading woman in the race, Nikki Haley, polls around 3.9% as she launches a campaign that encourages a new generational leader who is also a fighter.⁷ Haley was the former governor of South Carolina and former United Nations ambassador under Trump. As a result of the latter position and Trump’s sway in the Republican party, she has long avoided policy disagreements with the former president. At 51 years of age, Haley emphasizes her relative youth compared to other prominent politicians, notably Trump and Biden. She has called for competency tests for all politicians above the age of 75, a bar that would include the current and former president.⁸ In her campaign, Haley looks to move America forward, calling for a “new generational leader that can put the status quo behind us, that can put all the past issues behind us and say now it’s time for us to move forward as a country.”⁹ Her emphasis on “put[ting] past issues behind us” implicitly targets Trump by calling for a new leader with a less troubled past. Although hesitant to explicitly criticize Trump, she has condemned DeSantis directly, especially for his fight with Disney. She said he should not have used taxpayers’ dollars to resolve the issue and that, as a former governor herself, she knows how a governor should deal with businesses.¹⁰ Haley wants to displace DeSantis as the leading non-Trump candidate and then rally voters around her to take on Trump. The last piece of her campaign is presenting herself as a fighter. Historically, female candidates face misogyny that raises the bar for how tough they need to seem, so she has assured voters that she can fight, even referring to herself as “a bad-ass Republican woman.”¹¹ Haley certainly has some things going for her, but she faces an uphill battle and risks being drowned out by the fight between Trump and DeSantis.

Perhaps the farthest right candidate, Vivek Ramaswamy, is polling at 3.8%.¹² He has been most vocal in his support for Trump but seeks to establish himself as an even more extreme candidate. He preaches an “America First 2.0” political framework, which includes using the military to squash Mexican drug cartels, ending civil service protection for bureaucrats, banning federal unionized workers, and adding term limits for civil servants.¹³ In essence, these policies reimagine the federal government and centralize more power in the hands of Ramaswamy as the potential executive. Ramaswamy is pursuing voters who think Trump has not gone far enough, so he targets current and former Trump supporters. Similar to other candidates, he believes he can deliver Trump’s policies without the drama and history, but his policies are more extreme than those he runs against. Ramaswamy’s path to the presidency appears unlikely. Still, at only 37 years of age, he could be setting himself up for a future presidential run, and even if victory evades him, his presence as a more extreme candidate could affect the nature of the race and debate stage.

Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, who currently polls at 3.7%, preaches a more optimistic message than most of his adversaries.¹⁴ As the lone black Republican in the Senate, Scott uses his story to deem America the land of opportunity. His first major appearance on the national stage was his well-received State of the Union response to Biden’s first address.¹⁵ Scott has gone on to become a prominent figure in the Republican party. He may struggle to reach Republicans more attracted to the belligerent rhetoric of Trump and DeSantis, but if they spend the time from now until the primaries bashing each other, Republicans may grow wary and turn to Scott’s more optimistic leadership. Although he will have to fight fellow South Carolinian Nikki Haley for the state, he hopes a win in his home state could propel him forward since it is one of the three earliest states in the primary. Additionally, he is focusing on the evangelicals in Iowa, similar to Pence, and he has an incredible ability to connect with this voting bloc. Lastly, Scott’s position as the leading black candidate could also aid his campaign. In the past two Republican primaries, a black Republican has, at some point, spiked in the polls. In 2012, Herman Cain temporarily led Mitt Romney, and in 2016, Ben Carson was the only candidate ever to surpass Trump.¹⁶ Since the disproportionately white Republican party is often accused of racism, electing a black candidate can seem appealing to voters as it combats this accusation. Although starting low in the polls, Scott hopes that his optimistic rhetoric, his geographic strategy, Republicans tiring of Trump and DeSantis’s fighting, along with a potential boost similar to past black Republican candidates can land him a surprise Republican nomination.

At 2.7%, Chris Christie, former U.S. Attorney and former Governor of New Jersey, is the final candidate polling above 2%.¹⁷ He was an advisor to Trump during his presidency but has since become the most outspoken critic of Trump in the race. Christie wants to begin a new era for the Republican party, one without Trump in it. In announcing his campaign, he even said, “I am going out there to take out Donald Trump.”¹⁸ However, this goal has put him in a nearly impossible position, as Trump is nearly impossible to excise from the Republican party. A CNN poll found that 60% of Republicans said they would not consider supporting him “under any circumstances,” making a Chris Christie victory almost unimaginable.¹⁹ One of Christie’s main goals is to step onto a debate stage with Trump because he believes no one else can take Trump on. In 2016, Christie took on Marco Rubio on the debate stage, and he believes he can do the same to Trump. Unfortunately for Christie, even getting onto a debate stage with Trump will prove difficult. The Republican National Convention says that a candidate must be polling at least 1% and have at least 40,000 donors.²⁰ Although he comfortably surpasses the 1% threshold, he may struggle to find donors, as Christie’s stark anti-Trump position lands him on the outskirts of the Republican party. Additionally, even if Christie gets to the debate stage, Trump may not be there. The former president has said he may attend only some or none of the debates, leaving Christie without the battle he desires.²¹

The crowded Republican primary currently seems to favor a Trump vs. Biden rematch, but the candidate leading at the beginning of the race has often faltered. However, winning the Republican nominee will not be enough for these candidates. They will then face the challenge of running against President Joe Biden. Despite Biden’s poor approval ratings, the candidate who wins over the Republican base will likely have taken a far-right stance and, therefore, will struggle to rally moderates. Additionally, they will leave the Republican primary battered by months of campaigning while Biden will have coasted to his nomination. If an upset occurs and the nominee is not Trump, this reality will be even more apparent, as Trump will likely attack the victor instead of throwing his support behind the new lead Republican. Motivating Trump voters to come to the ballot box could prove near impossible without Trump’s endorsement, which also means even a Trump defeat would not compel him to fade away into the shadows. However, if Trump does win, moderates and even some Republicans will be hesitant to throw their support behind him after January 6, Mar-A-Lago and his legal troubles, and other parts of his past along with a general weariness of Trump’s character and conduct. Undoubtedly, the Republican party has a monumental task to prevent Biden’s second term. However, they will first have to decide who is the person to lead them: another try with Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis and the culture wars, the Republican fundamentalist in Mike Pence, the new generational fighter in Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy and his far-right America First 2.0, Tim Scott’s optimistic vision for America, or Chris Christie’s new Trump-less era of the party.

Cover Image: “Ron DeSantis” by “Gage Skidmore” is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0

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